There's fifteen billion pounds heading into UK retrofit right now, confirmed under the government's Warm Homes Plan, aimed at upgrading up to five million homes by 2030. Insulation, batteries, heat pumps, the works. On paper, this should be the easiest 'yes' in the sector's history.

So here's what surprised me. Heat pump installations in social housing actually fell this quarter, down eighteen per cent on the quarter before. With the money sitting right there.

I don't think that's a story about hesitation, or nerve, or anyone dragging their feet. I think it's a story about trust. Committing to a retrofit means trusting that it'll perform once it's actually installed, not just on the spec sheet.

A heat pump isn't a drop-in replacement for a gas boiler. It only performs as promised when it's fitted correctly, alongside the right supporting measures, properly sized radiators, adequate insulation, the fabric of the building doing its share of the work. But even when the installation is spot on: the biggest barrier to a heat pump running well is usually human behaviour, not hardware. We're used to gas boilers, blast the heat on, blast it off, done. A heat pump wants to run steadily at a lower temperature over longer periods.

Tracking solves the confidence problem

This is exactly what we have been working on. Before a single change, you can see which interventions actually suit your building, what they'll cost, and what benefit to expect, so the business case is solid from day one. The part I think matters most comes after installation. You can track the equipment's real-time performance, so if a heat pump isn't operating as it should, whether that's a sizing issue, an insulation gap, or simply the way it's being run, you see it immediately, and you get a clear steer on how to put it right.

The performance gap is entirely solveable, and it doesn't need a bigger budget to close it, just better evidence.

Non-domestic estates are already showing us the shape of the answer. The teams moving fastest aren't the ones with the deepest pockets, they're the ones who can see, in real time, whether an intervention is doing what it promised.

• Confidence upfront, because you are able to organise your estate data into scenarios with clear targets and action plans before any decision is made.

• Confidence afterwards, because live performance data confirms it's working, rather than a report six months later confirming it wasn't.

That's the shift I'd love to see spread further into social housing. Not more caution, more visibility. When you can see a building's real energy behaviour before you touch it, the business case writes itself, and when you can watch performance after the work is done, doubt has nowhere left to hide.

The money is there. The appetite is there. What's been missing is the evidence to move with real conviction, and that's precisely the gap live data is built to close. I think we're about to see the pace pick right back up.

Nick

Nick Tune

CEO OptimiseAI

Sources

• gov.uk, "Warm Homes Plan," 21 January 2026 — https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/warm-homes-plan/warm-homes-plan-html

• Secondary/trade coverage: Retrofit Academy — https://retrofitacademy.org/warm-homes-plan-announcement-2026/

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